2025 Recession Risk

2025 Recession Risk. Meanwhile, a new york fed measure, updated earlier this month, opens new tab, flags a 57.1% recession probability by january 2025, up from the 47.3%. With inflation falling, unemployment low and the federal reserve signaling it could soon begin cutting interest rates, forecasters are becoming increasingly optimistic.

Economic downturn was considered the number one risk over the next two years by a significant number of regions, including the us and over 20 european. We see a 25% chance of recession by the first half of 2025, 45% by the second half of 2025 and 60% by the first half of.